What exactly has March 14 won?

Hussain Abdul-Hussain, Special to NOW , June 25, 2009

Nabih Berri has just been reelected speaker of the Lebanese parliament, the parliamentary minority will eventually maintain its blocking third in cabinet, while representatives of March 8, namely the Tashnaq, Marada, Baath, Democratic Lebanese and Syrian Social Nationalist parties will join the regular national dialogue sessions at the presidential palace in Baabda.

So who exactly won the June 7 elections?

The March 14 coalition should have known that they were doomed, even if numerically they carried the day. Before the elections, Hezbollah media had boasted that a victorious March 14 would have to look over its collective shoulders after the murderous events of May 7 2008, when Hezbollah, Amal and the SSNP took to the streets of Beirut, killing both March 14 supporters and innocent bystanders. It was a day that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah went as far as labeling “glorious” during the election campaign. That was not the only veiled threat March 8 had up its sleeve. Nasrallah also said that, should his coalition win, it could govern a country one hundred times the size of Lebanon. Did Hezbollah and its allies plan to run Lebanon differently?


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My talk at the London School of Economics

The Lebanese Elections and Middle Eastern Democracy
Download Full Audio Here

Date: Thursday 11 June 2009
Time: 6- 7.30pm
Venue: New Theatre, East Building
Speaker: Hussain Abdul Hussain
Chair: Dr Katerina Dalacoura

From military intervention in Iraq, to supporting an uprising in Lebanon, forcing elections in the Palestinian Territories and imposing international isolation on Syria, the world has tried several scenarios to spread democracy in Middle Eastern countries. In light of the Lebanese elections on June 7, Hussain Abdul-Hussain will explore the status of democracy in the Middle East as well as look at broader impact of these elections on the regional balance of power between Iran and the US.

Hussain Abdul Hussain is a visiting fellow at Chatham House, and author of the forthcoming paper Confrontation through the Ballot Box: Middle East Elections and the US-Iranian Relationship. An Iraqi-born journalist, Hussain is the former managing editor of Beirut’s Daily Star and an expert on the Levant region of the Middle East.

Ahmadinejad Faces Struggle for New Term in Election

Inside Iran “looks like a green revolution,” Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a visiting fellow on the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a London-based foreign policy institute, said today in an interview for Bloomberg Television. Even if Mousavi wins and puts a “better face” on the regime, though, tensions between Iran and the West over the nuclear program won’t disappear.

“The standoff will remain between Iran and the West,” said Abdul-Hussain. “The supreme leader will remain the same.”

Ahmadinejad Faces Struggle for New Term in Election

Lebanon's Pro-Western Coalition Wins Surprise Victory in Elections

Hussain Abdul Hussain, the former managing editor of Beirut's "Daily Star" newspaper, is now a visiting fellow at Chatham House in London. He told RFE/RL that the election results were encouraging. But he says Hizballah's position on the vote bodes ill for the future of Lebanon and the wider region.

"The first reaction we see is the reaction of Hizballah, who said that the election results show that the crisis is still the same -- and that the only way out of this crisis is for the renewed majority to come to terms with Hizballah and to change its behavior,” Hussain said. “It seems they won't admit defeat. There seems to be no democratic way around the problem of Hizballah's arms in the short term. And there is no way to convince Hizballah to play according to democratic rules in the long term."
Hussain tells RFE/RL that he expects the biggest challenge to be the issue of what Hizballah does with its weapons.

"Now what happens on the ground is different because Hizballah has the arms. It has a private army and it can call the shots. This is what is worrisome for Lebanese democracy at large,” Hussain said. “The good news is Lebanon will not be re-aligned or taking the side of Syria and Iran -- at least the official side of Lebanon won't be doing that in the near future."

As for the impact of the elections on regional relations, Hussain says Iran and Syria are not going to be happy about the election results.

"The region was apparently anticipating a victory by Hizballah,” Hussain said. “We heard Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad saying that the Iranian axis was waiting for a victory by their allies in Lebanon so that Lebanon will formally join this axis. This did not happen -- to the surprise, I would say, of everyone in the region and around the world.”

He continued: “So Hizballah now cannot step into the shadows and call the shots from behind the scene like I think it had planned to do. Hizballah now will have to keep on relying on its bullying force in order to keep whatever it does not like in the Lebanese government in line. This [election result] will not go well with [Hizballah's] regional allies -- especially in Damascus and Tehran."

March 14 Defeat Hezbollah in 2009 Elections

A 'New Page' Between the US and Muslim World?

Experts' Comment - 4 June 2009

Hussain Abdul-Hussain, Visiting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme
America's best hope of transforming from a superpower to a 'smart power' comes from its president and inspiring orator - Barack Obama. His speech at the University of Cairo on Thursday can be understood in this context.

Obama, who often uses examples from his own life in his speeches, spoke about his paternal family with its generations of Muslims and of his Muslim Kenyan father. He twice mentioned his childhood in Indonesia, which has the world's largest Muslim population. Obama also referred to his middle name, Hussein, to hint that of all the American presidents, he might be the one with the best understanding of Islam and its traditions. He used symbols from his life story to show that he is willing to open a new page between the United States and the Muslim world.

Through his references to Islam, whether about his family heritage or citing verses from the Quran, the speech targeted two interconnected audiences: Muslim populations around the world and - more specifically - Arab Muslims.

A 'New Page' Between the US and Muslim World?

Kuwait Reacts to Iraqi Move on War Reparations

“This is an issue of national pride,” Hussain Abdul-Hussain, visiting fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told The Media Line. “All countries of the world have dropped their claims [for reparations] except for the Kuwaitis.”
Iraq is also seeking to be released from Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which punishes “acts of aggression” with measures such as sanctions and military action from the United Nations forces.
Abdul-Hussain cites the remaining sanctions and financial restrictions as the main issue at hand, rather than the reparations themselves. If the Kuwaiti government were to pressure the U.N. into releasing Iraq from Chapter 7, he believes, the Iraqi parliament might be inclined to retract its demand for reparations. However, he said, “I’m not sure the Kuwaitis will be flexible on that anytime soon.”
This has been “an issue that has been impending for a long time,” Abdul Hussain said. “Unless someone comes up with a creative solution, the crisis will continue for a long while.”

Kuwait Reacts to Iraqi Move on War Reparations